Handicapping with Race Replays

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Watching the replays of a race can be an excellent handicapping tool. The comment lines in the Daily Racing Form only give a snapshot of how each horse ran in their past races. The obvious ones to note are those horses with troubled trips. Some of the more common comments are wide trips or having to steady in traffic. Watching the replay can show you just how wide the horse was or how bad the horse had to steady. The main point of the replay is to determine if the trouble actually cost the horse a better placing.

An example? In race 6 on July 23 the #2 horse, Grecian, had a troubled trip. The DRF running lines say “forced far wide 2-turn,” but how wide and why? There was a loose horse in the beginning of the race that bothered Grecian from the get go. The loose horse caused Grecian to run too fast early and when they hit the second turn, Grecian was forced 8 or 9 wide losing 4 to 5 lengths. The interesting part is that Grecian did not quit and came running still to finish a good 4th, only beaten by 3 ¼ lengths. Grecian could be worth a wager when she runs back and hopefully at good odds.


Of course there are those replays that need to be watched that are not so obvious. Take into account race 6 on July 18, won by Let Us Prey who was making his first start in the U.S. The comment line reads “waited 1/8, rallied,” but this does no justice to just how easily the horse won. Let Us Prey was second to last racing against a slow pace. Without much encouragement from the jock, Let Us Prey moved up and was full of run down the stretch. When Mike Smith moved him out Let Us Prey unleashed a wicked rally to win going away. The ¾ of a length margin of victory does him no justice and was in hand late. Let Us Prey is definitely one to watch for this meet.